Monica McNutt and I have talked about this Lakers team until we're blue in the face. Tim MacMahon throws in his two cents too, and it’s always the same vibe: a lot of talent, a lot of "what ifs." The Lakers are currently hovering around .500, a familiar spot for them this season, despite LeBron James averaging 25.4 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 8.0 assists. Those are MVP-caliber numbers for a guy in his 21st season, which is just absurd, but it hasn’t translated into consistent wins against the West’s top dogs.
Look, they had that stretch in December, winning 8 of 10, including a 133-112 dismantling of the Thunder on December 23rd. Anthony Davis was a monster, dropping 26 points and 16 rebounds in that one. But then January hit, and they looked… average. They went 7-9 that month, losing to the Hawks, Celtics, and Warriors. You can’t tell me a team with championship aspirations can afford those kinds of slumps, especially when guys like Austin Reaves and D'Angelo Russell are supposed to be stepping up consistently. Russell, for all his flashes, is shooting under 42% from the field in key games. That’s just not good enough for a starting guard on a contender.
Here’s the thing: it’s still the LeBron and AD show. And that’s the problem. Davis is having a fantastic year, averaging 24.7 points and 12.3 rebounds, plus 2.4 blocks. He’s been relatively healthy, which is a minor miracle in itself. But when you look at their production, it drops off a cliff after those two. No other Laker averages more than 18 points per game. Austin Reaves, who had such a promising playoff run last year, has seen his scoring dip from 13.0 to 12.3 points per game this season. And his efficiency isn't helping, shooting 46.6% from the field compared to 52.9% last year. That’s a significant drop-off for a guy they need to be a consistent third option.
The bench depth is spotty. Spencer Dinwiddie was brought in, and he’s a solid veteran, but he’s not a game-changer. Christian Wood was supposed to provide a spark, but he’s playing under 17 minutes a night and his impact has been minimal. They lost to the Nuggets 114-106 back on February 8th, a game where Nikola Jokic had a triple-double and the Lakers' supporting cast simply couldn't match the Nuggets' depth. This isn’t a new story for the Lakers, either. Last year, they needed a trade deadline overhaul to even make the play-in. This season, they’re still searching for that consistent identity outside of their two superstars.
Real talk: the Western Conference is a beast. You’ve got the reigning champion Nuggets, who look even more locked in. The Thunder are young, fast, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing at an MVP level, averaging 31.1 points. The Timberwolves have one of the league’s best defenses, giving up only 106.6 points per game. Even the Suns, with their Big Three, are finding their rhythm. The Lakers beat the Clippers 106-103 on January 7th, but that game was more about the Clippers having an off-night than the Lakers dominating.
My hot take? Even if the Lakers make the playoffs, they’re a first-round exit. They just don't have the reliable secondary scoring or the defensive consistency across 48 minutes to hang with the top four teams in the West. They still have the talent to win any given game, especially if LeBron or AD go off, but a seven-game series is a different animal. Unless D'Angelo Russell suddenly transforms into an All-NBA caliber player for two straight months, they're simply not built for a deep run.
I predict the Lakers will finish as the 8th seed and lose in five games to whichever team snags the top spot.