Silver's Tanking Talk Misses the Point: The NBA Has a Deeper Problem
Adam Silver stood at the podium again, talking about tanking. The commissioner, bless his heart, admitted it’s tough to distinguish between a full-blown organizational teardown and a cynical attempt to lose for draft position. He's right, it is tough, but that's not the real issue. The league has tried to fix this for years, most notably by flattening the lottery odds in 2019, making it so the worst team had a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick, same as the second and third-worst teams. Remember when the Suns went 19-63 in 2018 and still ended up with the No. 1 pick? That was before the new rules, but the point stands: teams still tank. They just do it with a little more plausible deniability.
Look, you don't need to be a scout to see what's happening. The Detroit Pistons, for instance, finished 14-68 last season. They've been a bottom-feeder for years, holding a top-5 pick in four of the last five drafts. Is that rebuilding or just losing? The line is blurry, sure, but it’s often clear enough for anyone who actually watches the games. When a team trades away its veteran talent for future picks and then plays a roster full of G-League call-ups for the final 20 games of the season, it’s not exactly rocket science.
The Incentives Are Still There
Here's the thing: as long as the draft is the primary mechanism for acquiring top-tier talent, teams will always be incentivized to lose when they're not good enough to compete. It's simple economics, really. You’re the general manager of a team that’s 15-35 in February, staring down a playoff push that's not happening. You could fight for a 10th seed and a first-round exit, maybe even get swept, and then draft 14th overall. Or, you could subtly shift gears, prioritize "player development," and secure a top-5 pick. Which path makes more sense for the long-term health of the franchise? Any GM worth his salt takes the latter.
Remember the "Process" 76ers? They famously embraced losing, going 19-63 in 2014-15, 10-72 in 2015-16, and 28-54 in 2016-17. They stacked up picks, endured years of mockery, and eventually landed Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. They went from a 10-win team to a 52-win team in just two seasons. That kind of rapid turnaround, fueled by high draft picks, is the dream for every struggling franchise. The league can tweak the lottery odds all it wants, but it won't change the fundamental desire to land a franchise player like Victor Wembanyama, who has already put up a 40-point, 20-rebound game for the Spurs.
When "Rebuilding" Becomes a Mantra
Real talk: sometimes, "rebuilding" is just a fancy word for "we're going to be awful for a few years and hope for lottery luck." The Orlando Magic have been in a perpetual rebuild for over a decade since Dwight Howard left in 2012. They've drafted high repeatedly, landing guys like Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, but it's been a slow, painful grind. Their 2021-22 season saw them finish 22-60. They’re finally showing signs of life, but it's taken an eternity.
The commissioner's comments feel like lip service. He knows it's a problem, but he also knows the fix is complicated, maybe even impossible within the current league structure. Teams aren't going to openly admit they're trying to lose, and there's no way to prove intent. It’s a gentleman's agreement, or rather, a gentlemen's understanding, that some teams will punt seasons. My hot take? The NBA needs to implement a relegation system with the G-League. That's the only way teams at the bottom will truly be incentivized to compete every single night.
The league can talk about "competitive balance" all it wants. But until there's a real consequence for being truly awful, or a better way to acquire talent outside the draft, teams will continue to "rebuild" their way to the top of the lottery.
My bold prediction: Within the next three years, the NBA will seriously explore a mid-season tournament with significant financial incentives for the winner, specifically to combat late-season tanking.