The Lakers Are Still Fool's Gold, Even With Luka
Look, I get it. The Lakers finally look like a basketball team again. Anthony Davis is playing like the top-5 guy he can be, averaging 24.7 points and 12.6 rebounds. LeBron James is still defying Father Time, putting up 25.4 points, 7.3 boards, and 8.1 assists at 39 years old. They've won 10 of their last 14 games, including that absolute demolition of the Mavericks where D'Angelo Russell dropped 29 points and hit nine threes. But if you think this recent surge means a deep playoff run is suddenly in the cards, you haven't been watching this team long enough.
Here's the thing: everyone's getting a little too hyped about a few good weeks. They beat the Bucks in overtime, sure, but Milwaukee was without Giannis Antetokounmpo. They took down the Thunder, but OKC is young and still figuring things out. Their schedule, frankly, has been pretty soft during this stretch. They've still got a losing record on the road at 16-20. Real contenders don't struggle to win away from home this late in the season.
The Davis Dilemma
Anthony Davis has been phenomenal. He really has. He's been durable, he's been dominant. But we've seen this movie before. Every year, AD strings together a month or two of MVP-caliber play, and then something happens. A tweaked ankle, a shoulder issue, a back spasm. He missed 26 games last season and 42 the year before that. You can't tell me, with a straight face, that he's going to play 20-25 playoff games at this intensity without some sort of physical hiccup. The Lakers have zero margin for error with him. If Davis isn't at 100% for every single minute of a playoff series, this team is toast. Their offensive rating drops from 118.8 to 110.1 when he's off the floor, a massive swing.
The LeBron Factor, And The Rest
And then there's LeBron. He's still incredible, yes, but he's not 25 anymore. He's conserving energy, picking his spots. He averaged 35.5 minutes per game last season and is at 35.3 this year. In the playoffs, those minutes will spike, and so will the wear and tear. Can he carry this squad through four grueling rounds? I don't think so. Not against the likes of Denver or even a healthy Clippers team.
The supporting cast, while improved, is still a question mark. D'Angelo Russell has been hot, but his consistency has always been an issue. He shot 41.4% from three in March, a great number, but he was barely over 35% in January. Austin Reaves is solid, but he's not a primary creator. Rui Hachimura has had some nice games, but he's not a difference-maker every night. They are still too reliant on individual brilliance rather than cohesive team play. Their net rating of +1.7 is barely that of a playoff team, let alone a contender. The Kings and Suns both sit above them in the standings, and both have better overall team metrics.
Thing is, even with Luka Doncic, this team isn't built for a deep run. The idea of Luka joining them, as Tim MacMahon brought up, is pure fantasy right now and doesn't change their current makeup. The Mavericks aren't trading him. He just signed a five-year, $207 million supermax extension in 2021. So, let's talk about the team they actually have. They're a play-in team, maybe a first-round exit. They'll get bounced by a more complete, more consistent squad.
My bold prediction? The Lakers will lose in the Play-In Tournament. They won't even make the actual 8-team bracket.