The Wembanyama What-If: Dallas's Regret, OKC's Dream
Remember the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery? Mavericks fans certainly do. They held a top-10 protected pick, a real shot at Victor Wembanyama, the generational talent everyone talked about for years. Instead, the ping-pong balls didn't bounce their way, the pick conveyed to the Knicks, and Dallas was left to wonder. San Antonio landed Wemby, and the rest is history in the making. But what if the Thunder, with their war chest of draft picks and young talent, decided to make a truly audacious move for the Frenchman? It's a thought experiment that keeps general managers up at night.
Real talk: Wembanyama isn't going anywhere from San Antonio anytime soon. He's under contract through 2027, and the Spurs are building around him. But let's play hypotheticals for a moment, because the implications of a player like Wemby landing in Oklahoma City are too compelling to ignore. The Thunder have been hoarding assets for years, collecting first-round picks like they're going out of style – 15 first-rounders and 14 second-rounders through 2029, to be exact. That's an unprecedented arsenal, designed for exactly this kind of 'break the bank' scenario.
Thunder's Tactical Fit: A Defensive Fortress
Imagine Wembanyama alongside Chet Holmgren. That's a 7-foot-4 and a 7-foot-1 frontcourt, both capable of shooting, passing, and, most importantly, suffocating opposing offenses. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander drives, kicks to Jalen Williams, and if a shot goes up, you have two of the league's most disruptive rim protectors waiting. Last season, Holmgren averaged 2.3 blocks per game, while Wembanyama put up a staggering 3.6 blocks. That's a ridiculous amount of paint deterrence. They would transform the Thunder from a very good defensive team (they were 4th in defensive rating last year) into an all-time great one.
"Putting Wemby next to Chet would create the most terrifying defensive duo since the mid-2000s Pistons, but with offensive versatility those Pistons could only dream of," said one scout I spoke with last week. "You couldn't drive on them, and you couldn't shoot over them. It'd be a nightmare for every opposing coach." And he's right. The spacing would still work, too. Both Holmgren shot 37% from three last season, and Wemby hit 32.5%. They aren't traditional bigs clogging the lane; they're modern unicorns.
For Dallas, the continued what-if is painful. They desperately need another defensive anchor, someone who can protect the rim and take pressure off Luka Doncic. Dereck Lively II showed flashes, but Wemby is a different beast entirely. The Mavs' defensive struggles were evident in the playoffs, especially against teams with strong interior play. A healthy Wembanyama would have fundamentally changed their entire identity.
The Financial and Asset Cost
Now, for the really wild part: the cost. Acquiring a player like Wembanyama, even hypothetically, would set an NBA record for trade assets. You'd be talking about a package rivaling what the Nets got for James Harden in 2021, which included three unprotected first-round picks and four first-round pick swaps. For Wemby, that's just the starting point.
Oklahoma City would likely have to offer a combination of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, multiple unprotected first-round picks, and perhaps another promising young player like Jalen Williams or Josh Giddey. Even then, the Spurs would hang up the phone. A more realistic (but still insane) package would involve something like five unprotected first-round picks, three pick swaps, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams. San Antonio would still probably say no, and frankly, they should. Wembanyama signed a 4-year, $55 million rookie contract, a steal for a player of his caliber. The financial impact for the acquiring team would be minimal initially, but the trade assets would be astronomical.
Think about the Anthony Davis trade to the Lakers in 2019. That involved Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, and three first-round picks, including a pick swap. That was for a superstar entering his prime. Wemby is a superstar *just starting* his prime, with a longer runway and higher ceiling. The price would dwarf that.
"No team is trading Wemby within his first five years, unless he explicitly demands out and refuses to play for them," a former Western Conference GM told me. "Even then, the asking price would be so prohibitive, it would set back the acquiring team for a decade. Only a team like OKC, with their absurd draft capital, could even make the call, and it would still be a non-starter."
Impact on Spurs and Thunder
If the Spurs, for some unfathomable reason, decided to move Wembanyama, it would be a complete restart. They'd have enough draft capital to fill their roster with top prospects for the next decade, but they'd lose the face of their franchise and a surefire Hall of Famer. It would be a catastrophic decision, one that would alienate their fanbase and set back their rebuild by years, even with a haul of picks. The Spurs' plan is clear: build around Wemby, patiently develop talent, and return to contention. He's their cornerstone.
For the Thunder, acquiring Wemby would immediately vault them into championship contention. Their window would open wider and faster than anyone anticipated. They'd have a core of Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams, Holmgren, and Wembanyama – a combination of scoring, playmaking, defense, and youth that would be unmatched. They'd be the favorites in the West, no question.
But the true cost isn't just the picks and players they'd give up. It's the pressure that would immediately fall on a young team. They'd go from plucky contenders to expected champions overnight. That's a different kind of challenge, one that many young teams struggle to meet. Still, it's a problem any GM would kill to have.
Bold prediction: The San Antonio Spurs will build a legitimate contender around Victor Wembanyama within the next four seasons, making any hypothetical trade discussions entirely moot.